🧬 BIOTECH CATALYST AI SCANNER – January WK2

Alex

12 Jan 2026 — 17 min read

Takeover Rumors Swirl Around Revolution Medicines and Abivax as Industry Giants Hunt for Blockbusters

The 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference officially begins today, January 12, 2026, setting the stage for what analysts are already calling a "banner year" for biopharma M&A. The dealmaking atmosphere in San Francisco is electric, fueled by swirling rumors of massive acquisitions targeting high-growth players:

Revolution Medicines (RVMD): Reports indicate intensifying interest from major pharmaceutical players like Merck and AbbVie, with valuations rumored as high as $28–32 billion.
Abivax (ABVX): Speculation has surged regarding a potential €15 billion ($16.5 billion) offer from Eli Lilly, sending shares soaring as investors bet on its inflammatory bowel disease franchise.

⚠️ The "Surprise" Factor: Beyond these headlines, JPM is notorious for unscripted bombshells. Investors must remain vigilant this week for surprise data drops, strategic pivots, and partnership announcements that don't appear on any official agenda. In this environment, a single press release can reshape sector dynamics overnight.

While the "haves" attract mega-cap bids, our scanner reveals a distinct bifurcation for the rest of the sector. We are tracking a surge in "binary pressure" setups—companies where cash runways are dangerously synchronized with catalyst dates. Of the 30 candidates analyzed this week, a significant portion are trading near or below cash value, creating high-stakes volatility traps for the unwary and deep value plays for the diligent.

What We're Tracking:

Trading Below Cash: GNPX, RLYB, ELDN
Strong Runway: SLS, VNDA, QNRX, ACKV, PRAX, EBS
Binary Setups: TNYA, MTVA, BCTX, MGNX
Virgin Data: MTVA, TNYA, AVBP, RLYB, PRAX
Multi-Catalyst: QNRX, ACIU, PRAX

FEATURED OPPORTUNITIES (#1-10)

#1. GNPX – Genprex Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: REQORSA (quaratusugene ozeplasmid) + TAGRISSO – Phase 1/2 in Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
🛡️ FDA Status: FTD
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.34/10

Genprex leverages oncolytic immunotherapy—arming replication-competent vaccinia virus with p53 and GM-CSF—to trigger dual immune activation in NSCLC, differentiating from checkpoint inhibitor saturation.

The Setup: Sub-$2M equity value with $7.42M cash (6-month runway) creates negative enterprise value despite Fast Track designation. Deep technical oversold (RSI 51.7, -33.9% momentum) coincides with Phase 2a interim catalyst window (1H 2026). Market has discounted binary clinical risk to near-zero.

Science & Edge: REQORSA + TAGRISSO combination targets EGFR-mutant NSCLC via oncolytic priming. Phase 1 data (November 2025) showed zero dose-limiting toxicities and early efficacy signals. Mechanism avoids crowded PD-1/PD-L1 space; viral immunotherapy arm differentiates from standard doublet chemotherapy or erlotinib monotherapy.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Phase 2a interim positivity re-rates from $0.80–$2.00 floor to $3.50–$5.50 on deal potential or partnership.
🐻 Bear: 6-month cash runway requires financing by mid-2026. Phase 2a disappointment triggers dilutive capital raise; viral safety concerns could halt program.

#2. TNYA – Tenaya Therapeutics Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: TN-401 – Phase 1b in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
🛡️ FDA Status: ODD
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.43/10

Tenaya pioneers AAV9 gene therapies exclusively for genetic cardiomyopathies like PKP2-ARVC and MYBPC3-HCM, delivering functional genes via one-time IV infusion to restore deficient proteins in heart muscle, differentiating from symptom-only treatments.

The Setup: 7-month cash runway clashes with 1H26 TN-401 Cohort 1/early Cohort 2 data; December 2025 interim showed 3.4-5.0 vg/dg transduction, 10% PKP2 protein rise in 2/3 patients, PVC/NSVT cuts. Cash crunch, negative 21-day momentum of -45.4%, virgin Phase 1b data—binary pressure cooker.

Science & Edge: TN-401 AAV9 vector delivers functional PKP2 gene IV, achieving 1.4x10^4-2.9x10^5 mRNA copies/μg RNA by week 8, 10% mean PKP2 protein increase in Patients 1-2 at 3E13 vg/kg, colocalized stability proteins—first human transduction proof in PKP2-ARVC cardiomyocytes.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Cohort 1/2 data confirm >10% PKP2 expression + arrhythmia cuts, extend runway to Phase 2, 3-5x stock pop.
🐻 Bear: Patient 3 biopsy miss repeats, no efficacy signal, cash evaporates pre-data, dilution or bust.

#3. SLS – SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: Galinpepimut-S – Phase 3 REGAL in Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.42/10

SELLAS differentiates with GPS, a WT1-targeted peptide vaccine for AML CR2 patients ineligible for transplant, showing Phase 2 median OS of 21 months vs. 5.4 months standard care (p<0.02).

The Setup: SLS surges +76.5% on 21-day momentum (RSI 63.1), fueled by REGAL Phase 3 hitting 72 deaths for final analysis post-IDMC go-ahead; $67M cash funds 24mo+ runway into early 2026 readout.

Science & Edge: GPS elicits CD4+/CD8+ T-cell responses against WT1-overexpressing AML blasts in CR2; Phase 2 data: 21-month median OS vs. 5.4-month control; Phase 3 tests OS vs. best available therapy in 125-140 patients.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: REGAL hits OS win in early 2026, yielding approval in transplant-ineligible CR2 AML; $493M cap triples on 21-month survival edge.
🐻 Bear: 72 events trigger negative final OS readout; cash burn erodes runway pre-2026 without positive data.

#4. MTVA – MetaVia Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: DA-1726 – Phase 1 in NASH and obesity
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.36/10

MetaVia differentiates with DA-1726, a dual GLP-1/glucagon oxyntomodulin analog delivering 6.3% weight loss in Phase 1 without titration, targeting NASH/obesity vs. single-agonist competitors like semaglutide.

The Setup: 11-month cash runway clashes with early 2026 Phase 1 topline catalyst on $19.66M cap. Cash crunch, virgin data, low float fuel binary pressure (RSI 48.9, 21-day momentum -14.6%)—survive or evaporate.

Science & Edge: DA-1726 dual GLP-1/glucagon agonist drove 6.3% weight loss, waist reduction, clean safety in Phase 1 MAD without titration. Edge: virgin obesity data in cash-starved firm vs. iterated GLP-1s; vanoglipel GPR119 backs NASH combo potential.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Phase 1 confirms 6.3% weight loss, triggers partnership/buyout at $100M+ valuation.
🐻 Bear: Cash runs dry pre-data; dilution or delisting kills MTVA by mid-2026.

#5. BCTX – BriaCell Therapeutics Corp.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: Bria-IMT – Phase 3 BRIA-ABC in Advanced breast cancer
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.33/10

BriaCell develops personalized cancer immunotherapy (Bria-IMT) with Fast-Track designation for metastatic breast cancer. Memorial Sloan Kettering partnership validates clinical credibility and execution capacity.

The Setup: Existential binary: 1-month cash runway against imminent Phase 3 data (H1 2026). Recent positive biomarker data (zero treatment-related discontinuations) signals safety, but company must reach data readout before cash depletion. Win catalyzes funding; miss risks dilution or shutdown.

Science & Edge: Personalized immunotherapy platform (Bria-OTS+) with preclinical anti-cancer activity presented at SITC 2025. Differentiation lies in checkpoint inhibitor combination strategy; Phase 3 biomarker data shows tolerability advantage (no AE-driven discontinuations).

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Positive Phase 3 top-line by mid-2026 triggers funding event, validates checkpoint combo, de-risks commercial path for breast cancer market.
🐻 Bear: Phase 3 misses efficacy endpoints or delays past Q2 2026. Cash exhaustion forces unfavorable financing, destroying shareholder value pre-data.

#6. INMB – INmune Bio Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: XPRO1595 – Phase 2 MINDFuL in Early Alzheimer's Disease
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.06/10

INmune Bio differentiates via XPro1595, a selective soluble TNF neutralizer targeting innate immune dysfunction in neuroinflammatory Alzheimer's subsets, unlike amyloid-focused rivals. No ARIA-E/H risks in 70% APOE4 carriers.

The Setup: INMB faces binary pressure: $21.45M cash lasts 11 months vs. critical 1Q26 FDA meeting on Phase 2 data (December 2025 cortical disarray slowdown in ADi n=100). RSI 28.6 oversold, -33.2% 21-day momentum signals rebound or bust.

Science & Edge: XPro1595 neutralizes soluble TNF, reducing neuroinflammation without transmembrane TNF impact. Phase 2 MINDFuL: attenuated PerpPD+ cortical disarray, EMACC effect 0.27, pTau217 -0.20, NPI -0.23 in amyloid+ high-inflammation n=100.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: 1Q26 FDA greenlights Phase 3 in ADi subset; $90.86M cap surges 5x on clean safety, inflammation edge.
🐻 Bear: Cash burns out pre-catalyst; Phase 2 misses block Phase 3, dilution or delisting by Q3 2026.

#7. MGNX – MacroGenics Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: ZYNYZ (retifanlimab-dlwr) – PDUFA POD1UM-304 in Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.06/10

MacroGenics differentiates via DART bispecifics and next-gen ADCs like MGC026 (B7-H3 TOP1i) and MGC028 (ADAM9 TOP1i), outpacing standard ADCs in solid tumors with Fc engineering for enhanced immune engagement.

The Setup: 4-month cash runway clashes with early 2026 ZYNYZ PDUFA; RSI 71.7 signals overbought amid +30.7% 21-day momentum. Binary pressure cooker: approval or dilution by Q2 2026.

Science & Edge: ZYNYZ (retifanlimab-dlwr) is a PD-1 inhibitor for NSCLC post-PD-1/L1 failure; POD1UM-304 sBLA leverages 24% ORR, 14.6-month duration of response vs. 10-12% benchmarks, positioning as differentiated 2L option.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: ZYNYZ approval triggers $115M cap to $500M+, runway to 2027 funds ADCs.
🐻 Bear: PDUFA rejection + 4-month burn = 70% dilution; overbought RSI dumps 40%.

#8. RLYB – Rallybio Corporation

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: RLYB116 – Phase 1 in Immune platelet transfusion refractoriness (PTR), refractory APS
Date: Early 2026 (Est.)
⭐ BSI SCORE: 7.00/10

RLYB differentiates with RLYB116, a targeted neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) inhibitor blocking pathogenic IgG without broad immunosuppression, unlike IVIG or rituximab in PTR and APS.

The Setup: RLYB trades at $30M cap with $51.75M cash (18mo+ runway) despite negative enterprise value and RSI 38.4 oversold signal. Deep value setup primed for early 2026 virgin Phase 1 PK/PD cohort 2 data.

Science & Edge: RLYB116 selectively inhibits FcRn to reduce anti-HLA and anti-platelet IgG in PTR/APS, completed cohort 1 dosing September 2025. Edge: virgin data in unmet niches, healthy cash vs $30M cap.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Positive PK/PD data catalyzes 5-10x re-rating to $5+ price target, extending runway into Phase 2.
🐻 Bear: Phase 1 miss or dilution burns $51M cash, cap erodes to $10M.

#9. VNDA – Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: Bysanti (milsaperidone) – PDUFA in Acute bipolar I disorder
Date: 2026-02-21
⭐ BSI SCORE: 6.94/10

Vanda differentiates via Fanapt's 27% Q2 2025 sales surge to $29.3M from bipolar expansion, bucking HETLIOZ/PONVORY declines. $257M cash funds Bysanti without dilution, unlike debt-laden CNS peers.

The Setup: VNDA trades at $433M cap despite 24+mo $257M runway and February 2026 Bysanti PDUFA. RSI 55.8 neutral, +8.6% 21-day momentum signals entry before catalyst. Analysts target $16.50 (200% upside) on Fanapt/Bysanti growth.

Science & Edge: Bysanti (milsaperidone) NDA accepted May 2025 for acute bipolar I; no review issues flagged. Leverages Fanapt's proven bipolar foothold (18% Q4 2024 sales rise to $26.6M), strong runway mitigates funding risks.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Bysanti approval + Fanapt ramp drives 2026 revenue >$250M, stock to $16+ on $433M cap.
🐻 Bear: PDUFA rejection or Fanapt plateau sinks stock to $4, burns $84M TTM losses faster.

#10. BTAI – BioXcel Therapeutics Inc.

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: BXCL501 – sNDA Filing SERENITY III in Agitation associated with bipolar I/II or schizophrenia
Date: 2026-01-31
⭐ BSI SCORE: 6.87/10

BioXcel develops rapid-acting injectables for acute psychiatric agitation. BXCL501 (IGALMI®) is first-and-only at-home IV formulation for bipolar/schizophrenia agitation, differentiated by patient convenience vs. hospital-only competitors.

The Setup: Binary pressure cooker: $14.47M cash, 2-month runway versus sNDA catalyst imminent. RSI 59.2 signals neither overbought nor oversold; momentum negative -8.2% yet analyst consensus bullish 3 Buy/1 Sell. Existential inflection point on label expansion approval timing.

Science & Edge: SERENITY Phase 3 achieved primary endpoint (at-home tolerability) August 2025; secondary data September 2025 showed significant mCGI-S reduction vs. placebo across 2,433 treated episodes. First-mover advantage in home-based acute psychiatric treatment addresses $2.5B+ acute agitation market with hospital-to-home shift.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: sNDA approval 2H2026 unlocks label expansion; home-setting convenience captures underserved patient population; consensus $39.75 implies 1,600%+ upside.
🐻 Bear: FDA may demand additional safety data; 2-month cash runway creates dilution risk if sNDA delayed beyond Q1; commercial adoption uncertain for home IV therapy.

WATCHLIST (#11-30)

Oncology

#11. OSTX – OS Therapies Incorporated

📊 Price: $1.55 | Cap: $54.58M | Cash: -$5.44M | RSI: 45.76 | Momentum: -22.11%
🎯 OST-HER2 (AOST-2121) – BLA Filing in Resected osteosarcoma (2026-01-31)
🛡️ FTD, ODD, RMAT
⭐ BSI: 7.87/10

The Intel: OS Therapies leads in Listeria-based immunotherapies, using bioengineered OST-HER2 to spark robust immune responses against HER2+ osteosarcoma, backed by Orphan Drug exclusivity and dual human-canine trials. Phase 2b showed 80% 2-year OS in lung metastases vs. 30% historical benchmark. Primary risk: negative cash position requires near-term financing to support BLA submission.

#12. PCSA – Processa Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 Price: $3.36 | Cap: $7.61M | Cash: $2.27M | RSI: 40.43 | Momentum: +500.00%
🎯 NGC-Capecitabine (PCS6422) – Phase 2 in Breast cancer (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.79/10

The Intel: Processa develops NGC-Capecitabine (PCS6422), which inhibits DPD to boost cancer-killing 5-FU metabolites while slashing toxic byproducts, delivering strong clinical validation in Phase 2 metastatic breast cancer. Recent data showed increased efficacy metabolites with comparable safety. Primary risk: 1-month runway on $7.61M cap creates existential financing pressure.

#14. PDSB – PDS Biotechnology Corporation

📊 Price: $1.07 | Cap: $52.41M | Cash: $30.46M | RSI: 68.60 | Momentum: +4.90%
🎯 PDS0101 + KEYTRUDA – Phase 3 VERSATILE-002 in HPV16+ Head and neck cancer (2026-01-31)
⭐ BSI: 6.63/10

The Intel: PDS Biotechnology develops Versamune®, a T-cell activating immunotherapy combining with checkpoint inhibitors to target HPV16+ head and neck cancers. Phase 2 data showed 29.5-month median OS in CPS 1-19 patients. Strong clinical validation in combination with proven Keytruda pathway. Primary risk: competitive pressure in immuno-oncology combinations.

#15. ACRV – Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $1.75 | Cap: $55.22M | Cash: $115.06M | RSI: 40.79 | Momentum: -33.21%
🎯 ACR-2316 – Phase 1 update in Dual WEE1/PKMYT1 inhibitor, Solid tumors (2026-01-31)
⭐ BSI: 6.62/10

The Intel: Acrivon develops ACR-2316, a differentiated dual WEE1/PKMYT1 inhibitor showing early Phase 1 tumor shrinkage with improved tolerability over prior WEE1 inhibitors, targeting large solid tumor market. Trading at negative enterprise value with $115M cash vs. $55M cap and 24mo+ runway. Primary risk: early-stage mechanism in crowded DNA damage response space.

#17. CHRS – Coherus Oncology Inc.

📊 Price: $1.69 | Cap: $204.27M | Cash: $138.12M | RSI: 71.43 | Momentum: +27.07%
🎯 Casdozokitug (casdozo) – Phase 1b/2 in Non-small cell lung cancer (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.52/10

The Intel: Coherus pioneers casdozokitug, the only clinical-stage anti-IL-27 antibody, blocking macrophage-driven immunosuppression to boost T/NK cell activation and reverse checkpoint inhibitor resistance in NSCLC. First-in-class positioning with validated target biology. Primary risk: 8-month runway and overbought RSI (71.4) following recent momentum surge.

#27. CVAC – CureVac N.V.

📊 Price: $4.66 | Cap: $1.05B | Cash: $481.75M | RSI: 40.34 | Momentum: -8.98%
🎯 CVGBM – Phase 1 Part B in Glioblastoma (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.39/10

The Intel: CureVac develops CVGBM, an unmodified mRNA multiepitope vaccine inducing de novo CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell responses against multiple tumor-associated antigens in 77% of glioblastoma patients post-chemo-radiation. Addresses large unmet need in GBM where neoantigen scarcity limits rivals. Primary risk: early Phase 1 stage with unproven pathway in notoriously difficult indication.

#28. NUVB – Nuvation Bio Inc. Class A

📊 Price: $8.04 | Cap: $2.76B | Cash: $487.93M | RSI: 35.02 | Momentum: +2.55%
🎯 NUV-1511 – Phase 1/2 update in Advanced solid tumors (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.38/10

The Intel: Nuvation pioneers drug-drug conjugates (DDCs) with NUV-1511, the first chimeric small molecule platform selectively delivering potent anti-cancer agents to tumors while sparing healthy tissue in patients progressed on Enhertu/Trodelvy. Competitive advantages in novel DDC technology. Primary risk: early-stage clinical proof with limited efficacy data to date.

Rare Disease / Specialty

#13. AVBP – ArriVent BioPharma Inc.

📊 Price: $20.52 | Cap: $847.09M | Cash: $258.90M | RSI: 45.77 | Momentum: -15.73%
🎯 Furmonertinib (FURVENT) – Phase 3 in 1L NSCLC with EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations (Early 2026)
🛡️ BTD
⭐ BSI: 6.76/10

The Intel: ArriVent advances furmonertinib, an oral EGFR exon 20 insertion therapy for 1L advanced/metastatic NSCLC, outperforming IV rivals like Rybrevant with superior brain penetration and manageable safety profile. Breakthrough Therapy Designation validates differentiation; virgin Phase 3 data imminent. Primary risk: competitive landscape intensifying in EGFR ex20ins space.

#18. QNRX – Quoin Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

📊 Price: $12.21 | Cap: $132.41M | Cash: $110.53M | RSI: 37.48 | Momentum: +2.43%
🎯 QRX003 – Phase 3 in Netherton Syndrome (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.50/10

The Intel: Quoin differentiates by advancing QRX003 into Phase 3 for Netherton Syndrome, a rare SPINK5-mutated ichthyosis with no existing treatments beyond symptomatic relief. Phase 1 data showed M-IASI score reduction from 18 to 3 over 12 weeks. First-in-class positioning with strong 36mo+ runway. Primary risk: niche indication with limited commercial market size.

#24. PRAX – Praxis Precision Medicines Inc.

📊 Price: $288.45 | Cap: $7.27B | Cash: $1.29B | RSI: 58.18 | Momentum: +10.27%
🎯 Relutrigine (PRAX-562) – NDA Filing EMBOLD in Developmental epileptic encephalopathies (Early 2026)
🛡️ BTD, ODD
⭐ BSI: 5.89/10

The Intel: Praxis pioneers precision CNS therapies with relutrigine in NDA filing for DEEs via the EMBOLD study. Phase 2 achieved 53% placebo-adjusted seizure reduction and 66% increase in motor seizure-free days. Validated pathway with pivotal data and Breakthrough Therapy Designation. Primary risk: high valuation at $7.27B cap limits upside potential from approval.

#25. RARE – Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

📊 Price: $22.51 | Cap: $2.17B | Cash: $319.60M | RSI: 30.23 | Momentum: -37.47%
🎯 UX111 (ABO-102) – BLA Resubmission in Sanfilippo syndrome type A (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.65/10

The Intel: Ultragenyx pioneers in vivo AAV9 gene therapy UX111 for Sanfilippo syndrome type A, delivering a functional SGSH gene to cross-correct brain enzyme deficiency. Proven mechanism with validated target in ultra-rare disease. Primary risk: CRL history (July 2025) creates regulatory uncertainty; oversold technicals (RSI 30.2) reflect market skepticism.

Neurology / CNS

#16. SILO – Silo Pharma Inc.

📊 Price: $0.39 | Cap: $6.43M | Cash: $4.76M | RSI: 51.55 | Momentum: -10.68%
🎯 SPC-15 – IND-Enabling in Post-traumatic stress disorder (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.55/10

The Intel: Silo develops SPC-15, an intranasal 5-HT4 agonist for PTSD that boosts stress resilience via nose-to-brain delivery, bypassing the blood-brain barrier for faster onset. Large market opportunity in underserved PTSD population targeting FDA's 505(b)(2) pathway. Primary risk: early-stage, limited clinical data with IND not yet cleared.

#22. COYA – Coya Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $4.85 | Cap: $101.48M | Cash: $46.79M | RSI: 38.10 | Momentum: -20.36%
🎯 COYA 302 – Phase 1 in Frontotemporal dementia (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.08/10

The Intel: Coya develops COYA 302, a dual-mechanism immunotherapy combining low-dose IL-2 and CTLA-4 Ig to restore regulatory T cell function in frontotemporal dementia. First-in-class positioning with IND cleared January 2026. Investigator-initiated Phase 1 data showed cognitive stability over 22 weeks. Primary risk: niche indication with limited commercial potential.

Immunology / Inflammation

#19. AQST – Aquestive Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $3.91 | Cap: $477.03M | Cash: $114.45M | RSI: 23.61 | Momentum: -37.24%
🎯 Anaphylm (AQ-109) – PDUFA in Anaphylaxis (2026-01-31)
⭐ BSI: 6.48/10

The Intel: Aquestive pioneers PharmFilm oral films for anaphylaxis treatment with Anaphylm at PDUFA, delivering complex molecules non-invasively to overcome injection limitations. First-in-class oral film epinephrine with validated mechanism and strong 24mo+ runway. Primary risk: FDA identified deficiencies (January 2025) create regulatory uncertainty; deeply oversold RSI 23.6.

#20. ACIU – AC Immune SA

📊 Price: $3.41 | Cap: $342.40M | Cash: $36.27M | RSI: 65.33 | Momentum: +22.22%
🎯 ACI-24 (anti-Abeta vaccine) – Phase 1/2 ABATE in Down syndrome (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 6.44/10

The Intel: AC Immune advances ACI-24 anti-Abeta vaccine in ABATE Phase 1/2 for Down syndrome, offering active immunotherapy distinct from passive antibodies via Morphomer® and SupraAntigen® platforms. Phase 1/2 showed clean safety with zero ARIA in Down syndrome population. Primary risk: niche indication with uncertain commercial pathway.

#21. ELDN – Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 Price: $1.73 | Cap: $103.68M | Cash: $126.67M | RSI: 63.79 | Momentum: +1.76%
🎯 Tegoprubart (AT-1501) – Phase 2 BESTOW data at ASTS in Kidney transplant rejection (2026-01-23)
⭐ BSI: 6.40/10

The Intel: Eledon develops tegoprubart, an anti-CD40 ligand antibody advancing to Phase 3 for kidney transplant rejection. Trading at negative enterprise value with $126M cash vs. $103M cap. Validated target with proven mechanism and large market opportunity. Primary risk: Phase 2 missed eGFR superiority over tacrolimus; efficacy differentiation uncertain.

#23. ORKA – Oruka Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $27.86 | Cap: $1.35B | Cash: $324.19M | RSI: 49.12 | Momentum: -11.27%
🎯 ORKA-002 – Phase 1 PK/healthy volunteer data in Dermatologic/inflammatory indications (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.98/10

The Intel: Oruka develops ORKA-002, a long-acting IL-17A/F antibody potentially requiring only 2-3 doses yearly versus monthly dosing for competing treatments. Validated mechanism via proven IL-17 pathway with strong 36mo+ runway. Primary risk: early Phase 1 stage with limited clinical data and crowded IL-17 landscape.

Infectious Disease / Other

#26. EBS – Emergent BioSolutions Inc.

📊 Price: $12.96 | Cap: $680.66M | Cash: $242.84M | RSI: 58.21 | Momentum: +12.11%
🎯 Brincidofovir – Phase 1 MOSA in Monkeypox (Early 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.42/10

The Intel: Emergent advances brincidofovir, a broad-spectrum orthopoxvirus antiviral approved for smallpox, into late-stage clinical testing for mpox with the Africa CDC-led MOSA trial. First-in-class positioning for mpox treatment with validated target in related viral family and strong 36mo+ runway. Primary risk: outbreak-dependent commercial opportunity with uncertain demand.

#29. NTHI – NeOnc Technologies Holdings Inc.

📊 Price: $10.00 | Cap: $239.71M | Cash: -$5.20M | RSI: 84.49 | Momentum: +5.82%
🎯 NEO100-01 – Phase 2a topline data in Glioblastoma (May 2026)
⭐ BSI: 5.37/10

The Intel: NeOnc develops NEO100, an intranasal perillyl alcohol therapy that bypasses the blood-brain barrier to treat glioblastoma, with Phase 1/2a data showing 55% overall survival at 12 months and 21% radiographic response vs. <8% historical. Primary risk: cash crunch with negative working capital; overbought RSI 84.5 signals pullback risk.

#30. ETON – Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 Price: $15.46 | Cap: $414.60M | Cash: $51.02M | RSI: 42.51 | Momentum: -5.79%
🎯 ET-600 – PDUFA in Pediatric central diabetes insipidus (2026-02-25)
⭐ BSI: 5.37/10

The Intel: Eton advances ET-600, the first FDA-approved oral liquid desmopressin for pediatric central diabetes insipidus, enabling precise titratable dosing. First-in-class positioning with strong clinical validation via proven desmopressin mechanism. Primary risk: niche pediatric indication with limited commercial market size.

The Strategist's Take

This week's scan reveals a sector at an inflection point. The concentration of binary catalysts in the next 45 days creates both opportunity and risk. Several patterns stand out that warrant attention.

The Deep Value Pocket: Names like GNPX (BSI 8.34), RLYB (BSI 7.00), and ACRV (BSI 6.62) are trading at negative enterprise values while awaiting clinical catalysts. This setup—where the market is essentially paying you to hold the option on clinical success—historically produces outliers in both directions. GNPX's Fast Track designation and Phase 2a interim timing make it particularly compelling, though the 6-month runway creates financing overhang.

Phase 3 Concentration: SLS (BSI 7.42) stands apart as the most technically strong name with legitimate Phase 3 readout potential. The +76% momentum and IDMC continuation recommendation suggest the market is pricing in optimism, but the 21-month vs. 5.4-month OS Phase 2 signal provides fundamental support. BCTX (BSI 7.33) and PDSB (BSI 6.63) offer additional Phase 3 exposure, though BCTX's 1-month runway makes it the highest-risk name on the list.

PDUFA Plays: MGNX (BSI 7.06), VNDA (BSI 6.94), and AQST (BSI 6.48) offer regulatory catalyst exposure. VNDA's profile is cleanest—24mo+ runway, $257M cash, proven commercial platform with Fanapt—but the crowded CNS space limits differentiation. AQST's deeply oversold RSI (23.6) following January 2025 FDA deficiency letter creates a contrarian setup worth monitoring into the January 31 PDUFA.

A Word of Caution: The number of names with <6-month runways (GNPX, BCTX, MGNX, BTAI, OSTX, PCSA) creates a financing gauntlet ahead. Even positive data may be met with immediate dilution announcements. Position sizing should reflect this reality—binary outcomes demand binary risk management.

About This Scanner

This weekly report identifies biotech catalyst opportunities using quantitative screening combined with fundamental analysis.

What the Score Means: The BSI Score (0-10) reflects overall opportunity quality based on technical setup and fundamental characteristics. Higher scores indicate more favorable setups; lower scores indicate elevated uncertainty. This is NOT a prediction of catalyst outcomes or stock direction.

Data Sources: Financial data from market feeds and regulatory filings. Catalyst dates are estimates based on company guidance and subject to change.

Important: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, or medical advice. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, or professional advice.

Key Risks:

Clinical trials: Most drug candidates fail in development
Regulatory: FDA decisions remain unpredictable
Financing: Companies may dilute at any time
Volatility: Small-cap biotech stocks experience extreme price swings

Past performance does not guarantee future results.