How the Biotech Catalyst Scanner works

The weekly issue names ten featured and ten watchlist companies with a dated catalyst ahead. This page explains where every line of it comes from, what the rank score is, how cash is estimated, and what the scanner does not do. It replaces the "How to read" and "About" blocks that used to sit inside each issue.

The one rule

Every date, number and claim about a company comes from a document the company filed or published, in the company's own words. The scanner does not guess a date, round a window, or fill a gap from memory. When a company says "topline data in the second half of 2026", the calendar shows "2H 2026", labelled as half-year precision, and it stays that vague until the company narrows it.

Where the facts come from

  • SEC filings. Every 8-K and 6-K press release, 10-Q and 10-K from about 870 US-listed biotech and medtech companies is read within a day of filing on EDGAR. This is the primary source and the only source for financial figures.
  • Company press releases on the day they appear, through news feed, so a catalyst is on the calendar a few days before the filing that will carry it. When the filing arrives it supersedes the release.
  • Conference organisers' schedules for named congresses (ESMO, ASH, AACR and the like), so a "data at ESMO" statement carries the organiser's real dates.
  • ClinicalTrials.gov for trial identity: the registry record behind a trial name, its condition and phase.
  • Drugs@FDA for approvals, so a lapsed PDUFA date that became an approval is shown as such.

Company investor-relations websites are not a source. They proved too unstable to fetch reliably, and everything they publish also reaches EDGAR or the wire.

How a statement becomes a calendar row

A model reads each document and lists every forward-looking milestone it contains: the drug, the disease, the trial, the type of event, and the timing phrase exactly as written. Code then checks that each of those is actually in the cited sentence or its paragraph. A row the source does not support is dropped, not repaired.

From there, deterministic rules keep the calendar current:

  • The newest filing wins. Each programme's latest dated statement is its current position. Older, wider windows are retired when a later filing narrows them.
  • A reported result retires the guidance. "We announced topline data" closes the "topline data expected in Q3" row.
  • An FDA decision retires its PDUFA date, even when the decision came early.
  • An FDA-set day does not get vaguer. A later slide that says "Oct 2026" does not replace "October 17".
  • A window that closes with no result stays visible, flagged overdue for 45 days. Silence is information.
  • A congress slot for data the company already reported is flagged, not removed: the talk will happen, but it is not a readout.

Every row on the calendar carries its cited sentence, the filing link and the date precision the company gave.

The rank score, 0 to 100

The score orders attention. It does not predict outcomes. It adds six parts: the catalyst itself (its type, the trial's stage and how precise the date is), how far away the window is, the company's size, how easily the stock trades, the balance sheet, and the price trend. The catalyst and the balance sheet weigh most. A weak or vaguely dated catalyst caps the score, and nothing below 70 is featured; a short list is never padded.

Historically, across roughly 14,000 past catalyst windows, smaller companies have moved more into an event than larger ones, which is why size is part of the score. That is a base rate for the run-up, not a prediction of the result.

Cash and runway

The cash figure is an estimate, built the same way for every company:

  1. The company's last stated cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, from the filing, as of the quarter end.
  2. Minus the average monthly operating burn over the last four reported quarters, for the months since that date.
  3. Plus financing the company has confirmed it received since that date. A filing that only registers shares, refreshes a shelf or sets up an at-the-market facility does not add cash.
  4. Runway is that estimate divided by the same monthly burn. Where the company states its own runway, the issue shows the company's words beside the estimate.

If two filings could describe the same financing, the estimate is withheld rather than double-counted. A "financing filed since the cash date" flag means exactly that: a document exists, and only reading it tells you whether money came in.

Two layers: the app, then the issue

The calendar on app.biostockinfo.com is the first layer. It is built every night from the sources above by the rules above, and it is the data the weekly issue starts from. Every row there shows its cited sentence, its filing and the precision the company gave.

The weekly issue adds a second layer of verification. Before a name is written up, an independent review reads that company's archived filings again and answers one question: is this catalyst, its date and its identity supported by the sources as of today? Names fail that review every week and are dropped from the issue. Typical reasons: the data were already reported, the company re-guided in a later filing, the event is a webinar rather than a catalyst, a merger closed. A name whose date the reviewer reads more narrowly than the calendar is kept on the narrower window.

Those verdicts flow back to the app the same night, so a row the reviewer rejected is marked on the site with the reviewer's reason. The app is broad and fast; the issue is the twenty names that survived a second read.

What the scanner is not

It is not a forecast. A high rank means a well-defined, near, tradeable event at a company whose cash and liquidity make the event matter. It says nothing about whether the trial will succeed or the FDA will approve. The base rates above are for the run-up into events, not their outcomes.

It is not complete. Companies that file late, file vaguely, or announce only on their own websites can be missed. When a miss or an error is reported, it becomes a permanent test case in the system, so the same mistake is not made twice.

Corrections

Errors are corrected in the issue with a note, and the underlying rule or source is fixed the same week. Reports are welcome at the address in the footer.

Disclaimer

BioStockInfo is a financial publisher, not an investment adviser or broker-dealer. This report and the app are for informational and educational purposes only and are not investment advice, an endorsement, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Biotech investing involves significant risk, including the possible loss of all invested capital. The information is compiled from public filings and sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.