Black Friday sale extended to biotechs, with numerous attractive companies trading at bargain prices. Outcome of last week's scanner revealed a significant surprise, especially with CAPR despite ongoing skepticism about the data’s credibility. JANX, as discussed in my recent article, disappointed investors. However, this is the nature of biotech investing—we face challenges and opportunities daily. Remember to diversify your investments and consider implementing risk hedging strategies. Enjoy this week’s scan result and share your suggestions if you have any. As usual, the article is entirely automated and is unaudited except for the yellow highlight. Always make sure to double check and verify information.

The biotech tape is showing signs of extreme bifurcation. While the broader XBI momentum cools slightly, specific pockets of the market are overheating. This week’s scanner processed over 200 biotechs with catalysts triggered between 7 and 45 days out.

What stands out in this dataset is the sheer volume of "Negative EV" setups in the top tier. Four of our top ten candidates are currently trading at market caps below their reported cash and investment balances. The market is effectively pricing these pipelines at zero—or less—creating deep value dislocations if the upcoming data provides even a modest spark. Conversely, we are seeing momentum outliers like MetaVia (MTVA) pushing extreme RSI levels into pivotal readouts, demanding disciplined risk management.

We are also tracking a "Cash vs. Catalyst" collision for several smaller names, where runways under 12 months meet define-the-future data events. These are the highest-risk, highest-reward corners of the watchlist.

What We're Tracking:

• Trading Below Cash: Eledon (ELDN), Acrivon (ACRV), Rallybio (RLYB), BioLineRx (BLRX)
• Well-Funded, Multi-Year Runway: Contineum (CTNM), Assembly Biosciences (ASMB), Sarepta (SRPT), Janux (JANX), BioAge (BIOA), Centessa (CNTA)
• Cash vs. Catalyst Collision: Werewolf (HOWL), Traws Pharma (TRAW)
• Novel Mechanisms: Dual GLP-1/GCG (MTVA), CD40L (ELDN), Dual WEE1/PKMYT1 (ACRV)

Top 10

#1. MTVA — MetaVia Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $8.18 | Cap: $19.72M | Cash: $12M | Runway: 12mo+ | Float: 2.41M | RSI: 95.56 | Momentum (21d): 862.59% | Volume Ratio: 10.61x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: DA-1726 — Phase 1 in MASH and obesity Date: Q4 2025⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 7.4

🧠 The Setup: MTVA screens as a micro-cap, high‑beta momentum play with extreme near‑term technical strength: 14‑day RSI ~95 and ~860% 21‑day momentum, flagging a crowded long and heavily overbought tape into a binary clinical catalyst. The stock’s tiny market cap versus the multibillion‑dollar GLP‑1/NASH opportunity creates substantial torque to incremental human efficacy or safety signals from DA‑1726’s Phase 1 dataset, particularly given early data showing up to 6.3% weight loss and waist reduction without dose titration. The float is thin and ownership still relatively fragmented per recent 13G filings, supporting the low-float/high-momentum profile as new institutions diligence the GLP‑1 obesity theme. With Phase 1 topline obesity/NASH data guided for year‑end 2025 and no evident delay, the setup is essentially virgin human data in a validated mechanism, overlaid on stretched technicals and a constrained balance sheet.

🔬 Science & Edge: DA‑1726 is a novel oxyntomodulin analogue engineered as a dual GLP‑1 receptor and glucagon receptor agonist, aiming to combine GLP‑1–mediated appetite suppression with glucagon‑driven energy expenditure and potential liver fat reduction, an approach conceptually validated by other GLP‑1/GCG agents in obesity and NASH. Management reports Phase 1 results with clinically meaningful weight loss (up to ~6.3%), waist circumference reduction, and a favorable safety profile without dose titration, which—if replicated in a larger dataset—could differentiate on convenience and GI tolerability versus titration-heavy GLP‑1 competitors. DA‑1241, a GPR119 agonist, promotes endogenous GLP‑1, GIP, and PYY secretion, providing a mechanistically complementary incretin‑based approach in MASH and type 2 diabetes that could be combined with GLP‑1/glucagon agents. The scientific edge for MetaVia is a focused cardiometabolic franchise combining validated incretin biology (GLP‑1/GCG, GPR119) with a multi‑asset platform in obesity and MASH, rather than a single‑asset dependency.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: If DA‑1726’s full Phase 1 dataset confirms robust, dose‑responsive weight loss with acceptable safety and no need for slow titration, MetaVia could position itself as a differentiated GLP‑1/glucagon entrant and a potential partnering target for larger obesity players, driving a step‑change re‑rating from its current micro‑cap base. • Bear: The bar in obesity and NASH is now set by Wegovy, Zepbound, and emerging dual/triple agonists, so anything less than best‑in‑class or clearly differentiated efficacy/tolerability from DA‑1726 will struggle to command premium economics or partner interest, capping valuation despite positive but modest Phase 1 signals.

Editor's note : Reverse split on 5th of December and huge spike after the market close, high volatility.

#2. ELDN — Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $1.58 | Cap: $94.69M | Cash: $135M | Runway: 24mo+ | Float: 59.93M | RSI: 42.11 | Momentum (21d): -61.46% | Volume Ratio: 0.3x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: Tegoprubart — Phase 1/2 in Pancreatic islet cell transplant rejection in patients with type 1 diabetes Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.69

🧠 The Setup: The setup in Eledon is a deep value, negative EV story: as of its latest reported quarter (Sep 30, 2025), the company held roughly $93M+ in cash and short-term investments and has since priced a $50M underwritten offering at $1.65 per share plus pre-funded warrants, materially bolstering the balance sheet relative to a sub-$100M equity value. This creates a “fortress balance sheet” dynamic where cash substantially underpins the valuation while investors are paying little for optionality on multiple late-stage transplant programs. The trade-off is negative momentum and dilution overhang from serial capital raises (2024 private placement followed by the 2025 public offering), which have pressured the stock and left sentiment cautious. For catalyst-driven investors, the 2025–2026 transplant readouts (including longer-term tegoprubart data in organ and islet transplantation) are the key inflection points that could force a re-rating off of a distressed starting point.

🔬 Science & Edge: Tegoprubart is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody against CD40 ligand (CD40L), a central costimulatory pathway that controls both adaptive and innate immune activation, allowing for potent immunomodulation without broad lymphocyte depletion. The CD40/CD40L axis is a well-validated target in transplantation and autoimmunity, but earlier anti-CD40L antibodies were limited by thromboembolic safety issues; tegoprubart was engineered as a next-generation construct to mitigate these liabilities while preserving efficacy. Eledon’s edge is a focused platform around CD40L biology spanning kidney allograft transplantation, xenotransplantation, and related indications, enabling cross-program learning on dosing, safety, and biomarker strategy. In islet cell transplantation for type 1 diabetes, a non–steroid, non–calcineurin-based regimen that preserves islet function with a cleaner safety profile would be clearly differentiated from legacy immunosuppressive cocktails and aligns with emerging CD40/CD40L-based regimens being explored in academic consortia.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: The bull case is that tegoprubart delivers durable rejection prevention and islet graft survival with a meaningfully better safety and tolerability profile than current multi-drug immunosuppressive regimens, enabling broader adoption of islet transplantation in type 1 diabetes. • Bear: The bear case centers on clinical and translational risk: tegoprubart may fail to show sufficient incremental benefit on rejection rates, insulin independence, or long-term islet survival versus existing or next-generation regimens, especially given the complexity and small size of islet transplant trials.

#3. ACRV — Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $2.37 | Cap: $74.79M | Cash: $119.84M | Runway: 24mo+ | Float: 31.56M | RSI: 56.07 | Momentum (21d): 18.5% | Volume Ratio: 0.44x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: ACR-2316 — Phase 1 in Dual WEE1 and PKMYT1 inhibitor, Solid tumors Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.51

🧠 The Setup: The ACRV setup is a deep value play: a sub‑$100M market cap against a cash balance reported at over $100M and an ongoing multi‑asset clinical pipeline, implying an effectively negative enterprise value and a “fortress” balance sheet. Acrivon continues to hire and grant equity to new employees in late 2025, signaling an active operating plan rather than a wind‑down. Institutional interest remains present, with large holders such as JPMorgan Chase & Co reporting increased positions during 2025, and the stock carries a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating from covering analysts. Into 2025–2026, the Phase 1 readout for ACR‑2316 adds a defined catalyst on top of the more advanced ACR‑368 program, giving multiple shots on goal while the valuation implies limited expectations.

🔬 Science & Edge: ACR‑2316 is a dual WEE1/PKMYT1 inhibitor designed to disrupt the G2/M checkpoint and force mitotic catastrophe in tumor cells by strongly activating CDK1, CDK2, and PLK1, a broader pro‑apoptotic push than seen with benchmark WEE1 inhibitors in preclinical work. This target class is clinically validated (e.g., prior WEE1 programs), but ACR‑2316’s differentiation lies in its dual‑target design and the use of Acrivon’s AP3 platform to confirm drug‑regulated pathway effects and target engagement directly in patient samples via mass‑spectrometry profiling. In the ongoing Phase 1 trial, Acrivon has reported completion of the first three dose‑escalation cohorts, clear pharmacokinetic dose proportionality, target engagement at low doses, and initial tumor shrinkage at the third dose level, all early but encouraging signals. The same AP3/OncoSignature paradigm that underpins ACR‑368 provides a potential future edge for ACR‑2316 in selecting sensitive tumor types and biomarker‑defined subgroups.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: If ACR‑2316’s Phase 1 data in 2025–2026 show a clean safety profile with durable responses and a biomarker‑enriched signal in difficult solid tumors, Acrivon could rapidly pivot to a focused Phase 2 strategy leveraging its AP3 platform, driving a substantial re‑rating from negative EV to a more typical multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar valuation for a dual‑asset precision oncology company. • Bear: Early ACR‑2316 activity could fail to translate into meaningful response rates or durability, particularly if the dual WEE1/PKMYT1 mechanism proves too toxic at efficacious doses, collapsing the optionality around this program despite promising preclinical biology.

#4. RLYB — Rallybio Corporation

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $0.6618 | Cap: $27.96M | Cash: $54.30M | Runway: 24mo+ | Float: 42.24M | RSI: 58.36 | Momentum (21d): 3.6% | Volume Ratio: 0.22x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: RLYB116 — Phase 1 in Immune platelet transfusion refractoriness (PTR), refractory antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) Date: 2025-12-31 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.43

🧠 The Setup: Rallybio screens as a deep value, negative‑EV biotech: with a market cap around $28M and cash/marketable securities of $59.3M as of September 30, 2025, the enterprise value is materially below net cash, effectively giving investors the pipeline at a discount. Management extended cash runway through 2027 via a $25M monetization of its interest in REV102 (including $7.5M in upfront equity and an additional $12.5M milestone from Recursion), reducing near‑term financing overhang. The key near‑term catalyst is “virgin” human PK/PD data from the Phase 1 confirmatory study of RLYB116, with Cohort 1 dosing completed and Cohort 2 data guided for 4Q 2025, which could de‑risk the program’s exposure profile and support transition into patient studies. Technicals sit in a contrarian zone: low absolute share price, small float dynamics, and a modestly positive recent momentum signal create asymmetry if the H2 2025 data are clinically and mechanistically supportive.

🔬 Science & Edge: RLYB116 is a long‑acting, subcutaneous C5 complement inhibitor designed to provide sustained suppression of terminal complement activity, aiming to match or improve on IV C5 blockers while offering more convenient dosing and potentially lower cost of goods. By targeting C5, it taps into a well‑validated pathway (e.g., eculizumab/ravulizumab) but is being positioned in niche, under‑served indications such as immune PTR and refractory APS, where current standards (platelet transfusions, anticoagulation, immunosuppression) are inadequate and no C5 inhibitors are specifically approved. The Phase 1 confirmatory PK/PD study in healthy volunteers is intended to validate exposure–response relationships and duration of complement blockade, de‑risking dose selection and regimen for subsequent proof‑of‑concept trials in PTR and APS. Rallybio’s edge rests on repurposing a validated mechanism into high‑unmet‑need, smaller commercial segments where competition is limited and development can be capital efficient.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: If RLYB116’s confirmatory PK/PD profile demonstrates robust, durable C5 blockade with a convenient subcutaneous regimen, Rallybio can rapidly pivot into focused PTR and refractory APS studies, targeting indications with meaningful pricing power and relatively concentrated prescriber bases. • Bear: RLYB116 is still in early‑stage development, and a disappointing PK/PD readout—insufficient C5 suppression, unfavorable half‑life, or safety/tolerability issues—could materially impair or terminate the program before it reaches patient‑level efficacy studies, leaving the company with only preclinical and early pipeline assets.

#5. BLRX — BioLineRx Ltd.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $3.38 | Cap: $12.58M | Cash: $65.56M | Runway: N/A | Float: 3.72M | RSI: 54.97 | Momentum (21d): 1.5% | Volume Ratio: 0.17x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: Motixafortide (St Jude Trial) — Phase 1 in hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) for patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.42

🧠 The Setup: BioLineRx trades at a negative enterprise value relative to its cash balance, suggesting deep value dislocation versus its approved product and emerging pipeline catalysts. With motixafortide already validated and marketed in myeloma, the new SCD stem cell mobilization program offers “virgin” upside optionality with early Phase 1 proof-of-principle data now positive and additional data expected as gene therapy adoption grows. The small-cap structure and low float amplify potential upside on incremental data or partnering around gene therapy-enabling use in SCD. Near term, continued visibility from ASH presentations and expansion of SCD mobilization work at Washington University positions 2025–2026 as a period where even modestly positive updates could re-rate the stock from a distressed valuation base.

🔬 Science & Edge: Motixafortide is a high-affinity, long-acting CXCR4 inhibitor designed to rapidly mobilize CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from bone marrow into peripheral blood, improving the efficiency of stem cell collection. In the first-in-human SCD safety/feasibility study (NCT05618301), motixafortide alone and in combination with the VLA‑4 inhibitor natalizumab achieved robust CD34+ HSC mobilization (median ~198 and 231 CD34+ cells/µL, respectively) and projected collection of 13.9–18.6×10^6 CD34+ cells/kg in a single 4 blood-volume apheresis—levels consistent with requirements for approved SCD gene therapies. Importantly, motixafortide regimens were safe and well tolerated, with only Grade 1–2 local and systemic reactions and no vaso-occlusive crises, addressing a key safety concern in SCD mobilization. In patients previously mobilized with plerixafor, motixafortide (± natalizumab) delivered ~2.7–3.2‑fold higher HSC mobilization, highlighting a mechanistic and functional edge over the existing CXCR4 modulator standard and positioning it as a potentially superior mobilization backbone for SCD gene therapies.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: The bull case is that motixafortide becomes the preferred HSC mobilization agent for SCD gene therapies, enabling single-session, high-yield collections and safer mobilization, which could materially expand access and throughput for high-value gene editing and gene addition treatments. • Bear: The bear case centers on limited ultimate commercial penetration, as SCD gene therapies may remain constrained by cost, infrastructure, payer access, and competition from next-generation in vivo or non-HSC approaches, capping the addressable mobilization market.

#6. BMEA — Biomea Fusion Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $1.22 | Cap: $86.26M | Cash: $62.79M | Runway: 12mo+ | Float: 70.7M | RSI: 46.43 | Momentum (21d): -6.15% | Volume Ratio: 2.18x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: Icovamenib (BMF-219) - (COVALENT-112) — Phase 2 in Type 1 diabetes (T1D) Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.37

🧠 The Setup: Biomea sits at a sub‑$100M market cap with proof‑of‑concept Phase II data already shown in diabetes and a clean balance sheet extended into 1Q27 after two 2025 equity offerings totaling roughly $68M in gross proceeds. The stock trades as a distressed, under‑followed name despite the company reporting durable 52‑week Phase II icovamenib data in T2D and progressing a first‑in‑human program for BMF‑650. With the prior full clinical hold on icovamenib (imposed June 2024, lifted September 2024) now in the rear‑view, the set‑up into first randomized Phase II T1D data (virgin dataset) is asymmetric: either the platform validates disease‑modifying biology in T1D or the name remains structurally impaired. The “High Velocity” technical profile plus “virgin data” edge means positioning can change rapidly as investors recalibrate risk/reward into the 2H25 T1D readout window.

🔬 Science & Edge: Icovamenib is a covalent small‑molecule inhibitor of menin, aimed at restoring and preserving functional beta‑cell mass, a fundamentally different approach from insulin replacement or incretin mimetics in diabetes. In T2D, Biomea has already shown durable 52‑week glycemic benefit in Phase II, suggesting a disease‑modifying signal rather than transient pharmacologic glucose lowering. The Phase II COVALENT‑112 study extends this biology into Type 1 diabetes, probing whether menin inhibition can regenerate or protect beta cells even in an autoimmune background—a highly novel, high‑impact hypothesis relative to current T1D standards of care. Preclinical data combining icovamenib with semaglutide showed enhanced glycemic control and weight loss with preserved lean mass in T2D models, hinting at combination potential and metabolic breadth that could further differentiate the asset.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: If Phase II COVALENT‑112 demonstrates clinically meaningful, durable improvements in C‑peptide and insulin use in T1D—on top of existing 52‑week T2D data—icovamenib could emerge as the first disease‑modifying oral therapy in T1D, dramatically expanding the addressable market and supporting multi‑billion‑dollar peak sales scenarios. • Bear: The prior full clinical hold in 2024 underscores safety and regulatory fragility; any recurrence of liver or other off‑target toxicity, or a less‑than‑clean T1D safety profile, could sharply limit icovamenib’s utility or force dose compromises that blunt efficacy.

#7. CTNM — Contineum Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $11.04 | Cap: $322.17M | Cash: $173.06M | Runway: 36mo+ | Float: 29.18M | RSI: 53.19 | Momentum (21d): 0.27% | Volume Ratio: 0.41x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: PIPE-791 — Phase 1b in Osteoarthritis and low back pain Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.32

🧠 The Setup: CTNM sits at a roughly $300–320M market cap with a strong cash position (no debt and >$170M cash, ~36+ months runway), giving it the resources to run multiple mid‑stage trials without near‑term financing pressure. The key near‑term catalyst is PIPE-791 Phase 1b topline data in osteoarthritis/low back pain in 4Q 2025, a true virgin data readout for this chronic pain application. If the trial shows a clean safety profile and early pain‑signal in OA/LBP, it could rapidly reframe PIPE‑791 as a multi‑billion‑dollar chronic pain asset layered on top of IPF and MS optionality. Technically, shares have been under pressure over the past year but show a neutral RSI and modest positive 1‑month momentum, setting up a potential high‑velocity move around data if sentiment inflects.

🔬 Science & Edge: PIPE‑791 is a novel, oral, brain‑penetrant small‑molecule inhibitor of the lysophosphatidic acid 1 receptor (LPA1R), a target implicated in fibrosis, demyelination, and pain signaling. In chronic pain, LPA–LPA1 signaling is thought to drive central sensitization and neuropathic and inflammatory pain, offering a mechanistic approach distinct from NSAIDs, opioids, and anti‑NGF antibodies (inference from known LPA1 biology). The scientific edge is the combination of CNS penetration and target validation: LPA1 has prior human validation in fibrosis, and Contineum is extending that biology into chronic pain and neuroinflammation with a best‑in‑class profile aspiration. If PIPE‑791 can demonstrate clinically meaningful pain reduction with a benign safety profile, it would represent a differentiated, non‑opioid, oral chronic pain therapy with cross‑indication leverage into IPF and progressive MS.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: The bullish case is that PIPE‑791’s Phase 1b OA/low‑back pain data in 4Q 2025 show a favorable safety/tolerability profile plus a clear, dose‑responsive pain‑signal, de‑risking the asset and supporting rapid progression into Phase 2. • Bear: The bear case is that Phase 1b data fail to show a convincing analgesic signal or expose safety/tolerability issues, effectively capping PIPE‑791’s chronic pain potential and forcing the market to revalue CTNM primarily on earlier‑stage or partnered assets.

#8. VERA — Vera Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $44.9 | Cap: $2.87B | Cash: $449.93M | Runway: 18mo+ | Float: 63.93M | RSI: 88.98 | Momentum (21d): 78.03% | Volume Ratio: 1.65x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: Atacicept - (PIONEER) — Phase 2 in Expanded IgAN populations Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.28

🧠 The Setup: The setup is a high‑momentum, overbought name with a catalyst stack: positive 36‑week ORIGIN Phase 3 data in IgAN, planned BLA submission in 4Q25, and initial PIONEER Phase 2 data in expanded IgAN populations and other glomerular diseases in 4Q25. Vera reports a favorable safety and efficacy profile for atacicept in ORIGIN, including a 46% proteinuria reduction from baseline and a 42% reduction vs placebo (p<0.0001), positioning the asset as potentially best‑in‑class among BAFF/APRIL‑pathway agents. With management stating that current cash is expected to fund operations through potential U.S. approval and launch of atacicept in IgAN, the balance sheet supports an 18+ month runway into key readouts and regulatory events. The “virgin” nature of the PIONEER dataset in broader IgAN and additional glomerular diseases creates a speculative momentum opportunity around proof‑of‑concept expansion beyond the core IgAN label.

🔬 Science & Edge: Atacicept is a TACI‑Ig fusion protein that binds and neutralizes BAFF and APRIL, two key B‑cell survival and differentiation factors that drive production of pathogenic autoantibodies implicated in IgAN and other autoimmune glomerular diseases. By targeting both BAFF and APRIL upstream, atacicept aims to more completely suppress disease‑causing IgA and other autoantibodies than BAFF‑only inhibitors while preserving a manageable safety profile. In the ORIGIN Phase 2b and Phase 3 programs in IgAN, atacicept produced statistically significant and clinically meaningful proteinuria reductions, improvements in Gd‑IgA1 and hematuria, and stabilization of eGFR with safety comparable to placebo, supporting a disease‑modifying profile rather than pure hemodynamic effect. The PIONEER Phase 2 basket trial extends this mechanism into expanded IgAN populations, pMN, FSGS and MCD, testing whether dual BAFF/APRIL blockade can broadly modulate autoantibody‑mediated glomerular injury.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: The bull case is that atacicept becomes a best‑in‑class disease‑modifying biologic in IgAN, leveraging strong Phase 2b and positive ORIGIN Phase 3 data plus Breakthrough Therapy Designation to secure accelerated approval and a 2026 launch with substantial uptake. • Bear: The bear case centers on over‑expectation and rich positioning: with the stock already in a high‑momentum, overbought regime, PIONEER’s initial data may be “good but not great,” failing to show clear efficacy in expanded IgAN subgroups or non‑IgAN glomerular diseases and triggering a derating.

#9. KLRS — Kalaris Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT Price: $5.885 | Cap: $110.06M | Cash: $66.00M | Runway: 12mo+ | Float: 18.7M | RSI: 55.24 | Momentum (21d): 24.42% | Volume Ratio: 0.2x

🎯 THE CATALYST Event: TH103 — Phase 1/2 in NaN (nAMD/Ophthalmology) Date: Q4 2025 ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.22

🧠 The Setup: KLRS is interesting now because it is an early public ophthalmology pure‑play with a single lead program and a sub‑$150M market cap (≈$110M), giving substantial leverage to upcoming first‑in‑human data. Shares have shown positive momentum (≈+24% over 21 days, RSI mid‑50s), suggesting growing investor attention ahead of 2025–2026 readouts. With roughly $66M in cash and ≥12 months of runway, the company appears funded through the key Phase 1a and initial Phase 1b/2 data milestones, limiting near‑term financing overhang. The near‑simultaneous Phase 1a safety, Phase 1b/2 PK, and early efficacy data in 4Q25–2H26 set up a classic binary catalyst window in a sector (retina/anti‑VEGF) that public investors and specialists know well.

🔬 Science & Edge: TH103 is a fully humanized recombinant fusion protein that functions as an anti‑VEGF decoy receptor, engineered for stronger VEGF binding and longer intra‑retinal retention compared with first‑generation agents. The construct and mechanism conceptually echo validated decoy approaches like aflibercept but incorporate structure‑guided modifications to enhance VEGF inhibition and durability, aiming to meaningfully reduce injection frequency. The program’s scientific edge stems from rational protein engineering under the direction of co‑founder Napoleone Ferrara, the Lasker‑winning scientist who isolated VEGF‑A isoforms and co‑invented Avastin and Lucentis, providing deep mechanistic and translational know‑how. If TH103 can demonstrate a best‑in‑class blend of durability, efficacy, and safety in nAMD, it could carve out share even in a crowded anti‑VEGF landscape.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Scenario: • Bull: In the upside scenario, TH103 validates its design by showing meaningfully extended dosing intervals (e.g., 12–16 weeks or longer) with visual and anatomic outcomes comparable or superior to current anti‑VEGF standards in nAMD, while maintaining a favorable safety profile. • Bear: On the downside, TH103 may fail to differentiate on durability or efficacy versus entrenched anti‑VEGF competitors, leaving it as a “me‑too” asset in a highly saturated market.

TIER B — BRIEF INTEL

Oncology & Solid Tumors

#11. ATNM — Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 Price: $1.43 | Cap: $44.61M | Cash: $48.54M | RSI: 61.76 | Momentum: 8.33% 🎯 Actimab-A with Venetoclax and ASTX-727 — Phase 1 in Frontline acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.18

#15. JANX — Janux Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $16.51 | Cap: $993.04M | Cash: $979.14M | RSI: 27.51 | Momentum: -42.39% 🎯 EGFR-TRACTr (JANX008) — Phase 1 in Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.03

#17. LSTA — Lisata Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $1.97 | Cap: $17.38M | Cash: $16.44M | RSI: 38.1 | Momentum: -16.17% 🎯 LSTA1 in combination with SoC chemotherapy - (BOLSTER) — Phase 2a in Solid Tumors (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.89

#18. HOWL — Werewolf Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $0.9517 | Cap: $46.20M | Cash: $54.08M | RSI: 52.45 | Momentum: -20.69% 🎯 WTX-124 — Phase 1b in Solid Tumors (2025-12-31) 🛡️ FDA Status: FTD ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.84

#20. NBTX — Nanobiotix S.A.

📊 Price: $21.15 | Cap: $1.00B | Cash: $145.28M | RSI: 52.1 | Momentum: 7.52% 🎯 NBTXR3 — Phase 1/2 in Esophageal Cancer (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.77

#23. LSTA — Lisata Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $1.97 | Cap: $17.38M | Cash: $16.44M | RSI: 38.1 | Momentum: -16.17% 🎯 Certepetide (LSTA1) - (BOLSTER) — Phase 2a in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma (2025-12-31) 🛡️ FDA Status: ODD ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.69

#28. RADX — Radiopharm Theranostics Limited

📊 Price: $4.75 | Cap: $37.45M | Cash: $29.12M | RSI: 58.25 | Momentum: 4.86% 🎯 RAD301 — Phase 1 in Integrin αvβ6+ Pancreatic cancer (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.64

#29. RADX — Radiopharm Theranostics Limited

📊 Price: $4.75 | Cap: $37.45M | Cash: $29.12M | RSI: 58.25 | Momentum: 4.86% 🎯 RAD202 - (HEAT) — Phase 1 in HER2+ solid tumors (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.64

Metabolic & Endocrine

#22. BIOA — BioAge Labs Inc.

📊 Price: $11.61 | Cap: $416.28M | Cash: $283.56M | RSI: 80.58 | Momentum: 55.42% 🎯 BGE-102 — Phase 1 in Healthy participants, obesity (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.75

Viral, Infectious & Other

#10. ASMB — Assembly Biosciences Inc.

📊 Price: $35.01 | Cap: $553.76M | Cash: $220.96M | RSI: 43.67 | Momentum: 11.39% 🎯 ABI-1179 — Phase 1b in long-acting HSV helicase-primase inhibitor (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.20

#12. INCY — Incyte Corporation

📊 Price: $102.52 | Cap: $20.13B | Cash: $3.36B | RSI: 44.89 | Momentum: -2.55% 🎯 INCA33989 (mCALR) — Phase 1 in Myelofibrosis (MF) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.13

#13. OVID — Ovid Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $1.67 | Cap: $118.92M | Cash: $190.79M | RSI: 67.3 | Momentum: 25.56% 🎯 OV350 — Phase 1 in Healthy volunteers (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.13

#14. SRPT — Sarepta Therapeutics Inc.

📊 Price: $22.26 | Cap: $2.33B | Cash: $639.83M | RSI: 63.64 | Momentum: 26.19% 🎯 SRP-1001 (ARO-DUX4) — Phase 1/2 in Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 6.12

#16. ACIU — AC Immune SA

📊 Price: $2.8 | Cap: $281.15M | Cash: $36.27M | RSI: 32.87 | Momentum: -18.84% 🎯 [18F]ACI-15916 PET in α-synucleinopathies — Phase 1 in Parkinson's disease (PD) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.94

#19. CNTA — Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc

📊 Price: $29.91 | Cap: $4.29B | Cash: $665.31M | RSI: 67.8 | Momentum: 30.98% 🎯 ORX142 — Phase 1 in Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.83

#21. VTYX — Ventyx Biosciences Inc.

📊 Price: $8.72 | Cap: $622.25M | Cash: $179.22M | RSI: 45.29 | Momentum: -5.83% 🎯 VTX2735 — Phase 2 in Healthy volunteers, cryopyrin-associated periodic syndrome (CAPS) (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.75

#24. NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics

📊 Price: $56.9 | Cap: $1.16B | Cash: $232.82M | RSI: 50.3 | Momentum: 3.23% 🎯 Rezpegaldesleukin (LY3471851) - (REZOLVE-AA) — Phase 2b in Severe to very severe alopecia areata (AA) (2025-12-31) 🛡️ FDA Status: FTD ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.68

#25. CVAC — CureVac N.V.

📊 Price: $5.12 | Cap: $1.15B | Cash: $481.75M | RSI: 43.22 | Momentum: -2.48% 🎯 CVGBM — Phase 1 in Glioblastoma (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 0.5683/10

#26. TRAW — Traws Pharma Inc.

📊 Price: $2.29 | Cap: $18.30M | Cash: -$3.08M (Debt) | RSI: 53.33 | Momentum: 13.09% 🎯 Ratutrelvir — Phase 2 in COVID-19 (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.66

#27. SLGL — Sol-Gel Technologies Ltd.

📊 Price: $40.5 | Cap: $112.82M | Cash: $23.91M | RSI: 67.18 | Momentum: 26.54% 🎯 SGT-210 (erlotinib) — Phase 1b in Darier disease (2025-12-31) ⭐ BSI AI SCORE: 5.65

The Strategist's Take

Two distinct playbooks emerge from this week’s scanner.

The Value Hunt: The prevalence of negative EV setups in the top tier (ELDN, ACRV, RLYB, BLRX) signals a market that has capitulated on small-cap biotech risk. These companies are trading for less than the cash in their bank accounts, meaning the market is assigning zero or negative value to their clinical pipelines. Historically, these dislocations can coil violently on positive news, as the valuation floor is theoretically supported by the balance sheet. However, they also carry the "value trap" risk if the data fails to excite institutional buyers.

The Momentum Outliers: On the flip side, names like MetaVia (MTVA) are trading at RSI levels rarely seen without an immediate pullback. This indicates a crowded trade where expectations are sky-high. While the "virgin data" in obesity is a potent fuel, the risk of a "sell the news" event or a sharp correction on anything less than perfect data is elevated.

Where the Setup Looks Cleanest: Contineum (CTNM) and Eledon (ELDN) offer interesting contrasts. CTNM provides a "fortress" balance sheet with a multi-year runway, allowing it to weather volatility. ELDN offers the deep value cushion. Both have pivotal readouts that could redefine their respective valuations.

For catalyst-focused capital, the strongest profiles combine adequate cash, clear regulatory pathway, and imminent data. Position sizing should reflect the binary nature of these events—even the best setups fail more often than they succeed.

About This Scanner

This weekly report combines ML-based screening with AI-powered due diligence.

How It Works: The core engine uses a model trained on 15+ years of historical biotech catalyst data, identifying technical setups that have preceded significant price movements. Candidates passing ML screening undergo real-time AI analysis covering mechanism of action, competitive landscape, financial health, and risk factors.

What the Score Means: The BSI AI Score (1-10) reflects overall setup quality—it is not a prediction of catalyst outcomes. Higher scores indicate more favorable characteristics; lower scores indicate elevated uncertainty or risk.

Data Sources: Financial data from market feeds and regulatory filings. Catalyst dates are estimates based on company guidance and subject to change. AI-generated analysis may contain errors despite quality controls.

Important: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, or medical advice. Conduct your own due diligence and consult qualified advisors before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is given regarding completeness or reliability.

Key Risks:

• Clinical trials: Most drug candidates fail in development
• Regulatory: FDA decisions remain unpredictable
• Financing: Companies may dilute at any time
• Volatility: Small-cap biotech stocks experience extreme price swings

Past performance does not guarantee future results.