🧬 BIOTECH CATALYST AI SCANNER – February WK1

The biotech sector is entering February with mixed signals. XBI traded at $120.23, down 1.06% on the day, pulling back from recent highs near $131. After a strong 2025 finish that saw the equal-weighted biotech ETF surge nearly 37% year-to-date by December, January 2026 has brought profit-taking and consolidation. Yet beneath the surface, catalyst density remains elevated, with Q1 data readouts stacking up across multiple therapeutic areas.

This week's scan surfaces Top 30 catalyst-driven opportunities out of 121 catalysts scanned, with a notable concentration in oncology, neurology, and immunology. The featured cohort skews toward deep value setups—five of our top ten trade below cash value or at extreme discounts to fundamentals. Meanwhile, three PDUFA decisions and multiple Phase 3 readouts create definable event windows for catalyst-focused positioning.

What We're Tracking:

• Trading Below Cash: OKUR, ACRV, ACET, FGEN — Negative enterprise value setups with upcoming catalysts
• Strong Runway (18+ months): PALI, WVE, ALMS, TARA, CYBN, MLYS, GLUE — Cash-fortified positions enabling patience
• Initial Data Events: MBRX, PALI, ACET, CYBN, PVLA, MLYS, KOD, MDCX, IRD, ZBIO — First-time human efficacy readouts
• Existential Windows: MBRX, PCSA, MDCX, SKYE — Cash runway collides with catalyst timing
• Multi-Catalyst: CTMX — Two data updates within 90-day window

FEATURED CATALYST PLAYS (#1-10)

#1. CLNN – Clene Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $4.17 | Cap: $45.24M | Cash: $30.51M | Runway: 22.9mo | Float: 10.8M | RSI: 29.1 | Momentum: -30.0% | Vol: 1.1x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: CNM-Au8 (HEALEY ALS) – Phase 2/3 in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.65/10

Clene advances CNM-Au8, an oral gold nanocrystal suspension targeting mitochondrial dysfunction in ALS—a mechanistic departure from gene-focused rivals like Biogen's Tofersen. HEALEY data showed 6.5-month median survival advantage (951 vs 753 days, HR 0.272, p=0.014) in the 30mg cohort.

The Setup: The market assigns near-zero value to CNM-Au8 despite compelling survival signals. A $45M cap against $30M cash leaves minimal premium for Phase 2 data showing 93% survival at 12 months. RSI 29 and -30% momentum scream capitulation. The Type C FDA meeting in Q1 2026 could align accelerated approval via NfL/GFAP biomarkers, with RESTORE-ALS (690 patients) providing confirmatory data.

Science & Edge: CNM-Au8 restores neuronal energy production and cuts oxidative stress markers. Reproducible NfL reductions across HEALEY (GMR 0.905, p=0.04) and NIH expanded access (p=0.037) link to survival gains. Unlike antisense oligonucleotides targeting SOD1 mutations, this oral gold nanocrystal addresses the broad ALS population through energetics rather than genetics.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Type C meeting aligns NDA path; oversold technicals revert on regulatory clarity. $30M funds to milestone; ALS blockbuster potential re-rates valuation.
🐻 Bear: HEALEY missed primary functional endpoint; biomarker reliance uncertain. RESTORE-ALS spans years; dilution risk if delays emerge.

#2. MBRX – Moleculin Biotech Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $4.28 | Cap: $11.53M | Cash: $3.41M | Runway: 1.4mo | Float: 2.7M | RSI: 54.1 | Momentum: +28.9% | Vol: 0.2x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: Annamycin – Phase 1/2 in Acute Myeloid Leukemia
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.53/10

Moleculin develops Annamycin, a next-generation anthracycline engineered to eliminate the cardiotoxicity that caps dosing of standard-of-care doxorubicin and daunorubicin in AML. Phase 1/2 met its primary safety endpoint—no cardiotoxicity at FDA maximum lifetime dose.

The Setup: Cash evaporates within 90 days. Full Phase 1/2 data lands Q1 2026, but runway ends before readout without financing or partnership. This is textbook existential pressure—survive to data or zero. Momentum at +28.9% shows speculative interest building ahead of the catalyst.

Science & Edge: Annamycin sidesteps cardiac toxicity by avoiding P-glycoprotein efflux and reducing free radical generation. Phase 1B/2 soft tissue sarcoma lung mets showed activity exceeding 7th-line monotherapy expectations. The safety profile unlocks higher dosing intensity in relapsed/refractory AML where toxicity limits standard anthracyclines.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Full 1Q 2026 results plus Phase 3 MIRACLE momentum could ignite 10x rerating. Efficacy in R/R AML addresses massive unmet need.
🐻 Bear: Cash gone by Q2—data irrelevant if financing fails. Historical -88% 2024 and -93% 2025 performance reflects serial disappointment.

#3. PALI – Palisade Bio Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $1.61 | Cap: $239.90M | Cash: $158.91M | Runway: 36m+ | Float: 149.0M | RSI: 39.4 | Momentum: -31.8% | Vol: 1.1x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: PALI-2108 – Phase 1b in Fibrostenotic Crohn's Disease
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.31/10

Palisade Bio targets fibrostenotic Crohn's disease with PALI-2108, an oral PDE4 inhibitor prodrug delivering localized activity to the terminal ileum and colon—minimizing systemic exposure that causes GI intolerance with existing PDE4 drugs like apremilast.

The Setup: A $240M cap against $159M cash provides extraordinary runway—134 months at current burn. This fortress positioning enables patience through Phase 1b readout (first patient dosed October 2025) without dilution pressure. RSI 39.4 and -31.8% momentum suggest overselling despite fundamental strength.

Science & Edge: PALI-2108's prodrug design activates specifically in gut tissue, targeting fibrostenotic complications that existing IBD biologics (Stelara, Skyrizi) cannot address. Fibrostenosis affects ~30% of Crohn's patients with zero approved treatments—a clear unmet need. Crohn's & Colitis Foundation's IBD Ventures investment (January 2026) validates the approach.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Cash runway sustains operations through multiple catalyst attempts. Positive FSCD data validates targeted delivery, unlocking partnerships.
🐻 Bear: Single-asset focus concentrates risk. Eight-employee team faces execution challenges scaling clinical operations.

#4. ALMS – Alumis Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $26.84 | Cap: $2.80B | Cash: $527.38M | Runway: 14.3mo | Float: 104.4M | RSI: 76.6 | Momentum: +171.7% | Vol: 0.3x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: ESK-001 (ONWARD3) – Phase 3 in Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.30/10

Alumis commands momentum with envudeucitinib, an oral TYK2 inhibitor that just delivered positive Phase 3 ONWARD1/2 data—~65% PASI 90 and >40% PASI 100 at week 24 with superior separation versus placebo on all primary and secondary endpoints.

The Setup: Institutional flows are evident: 171.7% 21-day momentum and RSI 76.6 signal accumulation into Phase 3 victory. This is frontrunner positioning where ONWARD3 extension data confirms durability ahead of H2 2026 NDA submission. The $527M cash position funds commercialization preparation.

Science & Edge: Envudeucitinib achieves continuous TYK2 target engagement at 40mg BID through allosteric inhibition, driving rapid onset (PASI 90 separation by week 4) and consistent safety through week 24. Oral convenience addresses biologic injection burden in 8M+ US psoriasis patients who prefer pills over needles.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: PASI 90/100 rates lead oral class; NDA H2 2026 sets approval path. Lupus expansion potential adds pipeline breadth.
🐻 Bear: RSI 76.6 risks near-term pullback. Competition intensifies in crowded psoriasis space with multiple orals and biologics.

#5. PCSA – Processa Pharmaceuticals Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $3.14 | Cap: $7.11M | Cash: $1.59M | Runway: 1.4mo | Float: 2.3M | RSI: 41.3 | Momentum: +7.2% | Vol: 0.02x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: NGC-Capecitabine (PCS6422) – Phase 2 in Metastatic Breast Cancer
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.23/10

Processa tackles capecitabine toxicity with PCS6422, a DPD enzyme inhibitor that blocks breakdown of the chemo drug into toxic byproducts while boosting cancer-killing 5-FU metabolites. Preliminary data (December 2025) showed increased active metabolite exposure with safety matching standard monotherapy.

The Setup: Existential pressure defines PCSA. With $1.59M against a $7M cap, interim data must hit by March 31 or shutdown looms. Twenty patients enrolled as of January 5, 2026—the formal interim analysis determines survival: efficacy/safety edge or death.

Science & Edge: PCS6422 inhibits DPD, the enzyme that degrades capecitabine into cardiotoxic and neurotoxic metabolites. By redirecting metabolism toward active 5-FU anabolites, NGC-Cap achieves equivalent tumor kill at lower doses, potentially eliminating hand-foot syndrome. Phase 1b/2 showed 66.7% progression-free survival at 5-11 months.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Interim hits trigger partnership or acquisition before cash zeros. Validated DPD inhibition upgrades capecitabine in breast cancer's $2B+ market.
🐻 Bear: Zero margin for delays. Failure to beat mono-cap on efficacy/safety kills the program—no backup assets.

#6. WVE – Wave Life Sciences Ltd.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $13.01 | Cap: $2.34B | Cash: $485.67M | Runway: 32.6mo | Float: 180.0M | RSI: 29.9 | Momentum: -24.1% | Vol: 0.5x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: WVE-006 (RestorAATion-2) – Phase 1b/2 in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.21/10

Wave Life Sciences pioneers RNA editing with WVE-006, targeting the PiZZ mutation causing alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD). Phase 1b/2 data showed repeat 200mg doses achieved 11.9 µM total AAT—levels linked to reduced lung and liver disease risk—supporting potential monthly dosing.

The Setup: Market has punished WVE (-24.1% momentum) despite $486M cash extending runway to 2028. RSI 29.9 signals deep oversold territory while analyst targets range $19-50, implying 50-280% upside. Stacked Q1 2026 catalysts (400mg AATD data, obesity WVE-007 readouts) could trigger rapid rerating.

Science & Edge: WVE-006 uses proprietary RNA editing chemistry to correct the Z mutation, restoring functional AAT protein production. A single 400mg dose achieved 12.8 µM AAT, enabling monthly subcutaneous dosing rather than weekly IV infusions required by augmentation therapy. The WVE-007 obesity program adds optionality with GLP-1-like fat loss plus muscle preservation.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Oversold technicals meet stacked 2026 catalysts. RNA editing platform validated across AAT and obesity could command partnership premiums.
🐻 Bear: Multi-trial execution risk; obesity faces GLP-1 giants. No revenue until approvals years away; sentiment fragile.

#7. ACRV – Acrivon Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $1.88 | Cap: $59.32M | Cash: $112.60M | Runway: 27.5mo | Float: 31.6M | RSI: 47.8 | Momentum: -23.0% | Vol: 0.3x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: ACR-368 – Phase 2b in Platinum-Resistant Ovarian/Endometrial Cancer
Date: 2026-02-27 (ESGO)
🛡️ FDA Status: BTD, FTD
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.19/10

Acrivon combines precision oncology with its AP3 platform, selecting patients via OncoSignature testing for ACR-368 (CHK1/CHK2 inhibitor). Phase 2b showed 39% ORR in biomarker-positive endometrial patients, jumping to 67% confirmed ORR in serous subtype with ≤2 prior lines.

The Setup: Severe valuation dislocation: $59M cap against $113M cash creates negative enterprise value while Breakthrough and Fast Track designations validate FDA interest. ESGO presentation February 27 updates Phase 2 data ahead of Arm 3 enrollment completion Q4 2026.

Science & Edge: AP3 platform screens intact cancer cells to identify CHK1/CHK2 vulnerability signatures. ACR-368 monotherapy achieved 44% ORR in biomarker-positive patients with ≤2 prior lines; Arm 3 tests combination with ultra-low dose gemcitabine in 90 biopsy-independent serous patients. Preclinical synergy data supports the combo rationale.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Cash-to-cap ratio exceeds 1.9x; data beats reprice toward cash floor. Phase 3 readiness mid-2026 with FDA fast track.
🐻 Bear: Arm 3 combo could underperform monotherapy signals. Niche platinum-resistant indication limits peak sales.

#8. ACET – Adicet Bio Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $8.50 | Cap: $81.42M | Cash: $152.86M | Runway: 20.6mo | Float: 9.6M | RSI: 57.0 | Momentum: +7.2% | Vol: 0.3x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: ADI-001 – FDA Meeting/Phase 2 in Lupus Nephritis & SLE
Date: 2026 Q1
🛡️ FDA Status: FTD
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.16/10

Adicet Bio pivots from oncology to autoimmune with ADI-001, an allogeneic gamma delta CAR-T targeting CD20 for immune reset in lupus. Phase 1 data showed all seven evaluable LN/SLE patients achieved rapid, sustained SLEDAI-2K and PGA score reductions—immune reset without chronic immunosuppression.

The Setup: Cash exceeds market cap by 88%—classic value trap ignoring autoimmune pivot potential. FDA meeting Q1 2026 aligns Phase 2 design for 2Q 2026 start. Preliminary data shows three of five lupus nephritis patients achieved full renal remission at 2-9 months.

Science & Edge: ADI-001 uses allogeneic gamma delta T-cells from healthy donors, enabling off-the-shelf access within days versus multi-week manufacturing for autologous CAR-Ts. The gamma delta platform shows milder cytokine release syndrome profiles while achieving B-cell depletion and naive B-cell repopulation—hallmarks of durable immune reset.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Tiny n=7 all achieving responses; FDA meeting locks pivotal design. Off-the-shelf format slashes costs 50-70% vs autologous competitors.
🐻 Bear: Sample size too small for confidence. Autologous CAR-Ts from Kyverna and Cabaletta already report lupus wins with deeper datasets.

#9. HELP - Helus Pharma (ex-CYBN – Cybin Inc.)

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $8.28 | Cap: C$413.12M | Cash: C$320.83M | Runway: 24m+ | Float: 49.9M | RSI: 39.2 | Momentum: -20.9% | Vol: 0.0x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: HLP004 (DMT) – Phase 2 in Generalized Anxiety Disorder
Date: 2026 Q1
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.13/10

Helus advances HLP004, a deuterated DMT molecule engineered for improved stability and optimized 5-HT2A activation. Phase 1 showed psychedelic onset within 2 minutes, peak at 13 minutes. The Phase 2 program (36 participants) evaluates safety and efficacy at 12 weeks post-dose in GAD.

The Setup: Market misprices Helus at 2.1x cash-to-valuation discount. A $413M cap against $321M cash provides nearly 28-month runway through multiple catalysts. RSI 39.2 and -20.9% momentum signal technical oversold conditions. Imminent Phase 2 topline data (weeks away) represents near-term catalyst.

Science & Edge: Deuteration improves DMT metabolic stability and extends patent protection through 2041. HLP003 (psilocin analog) Phase 2 achieved 100% response rates and 71% remission at 12 months, earning FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for MDD. The dual-program approach targets both depression and anxiety.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: Phase 2 HLP004 safety/tolerability supports Phase 3 advancement. GAD market underserved; rapid-onset mechanism offers differentiation.
🐻 Bear: Psychedelic commercialization faces regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty. High placebo response in anxiety trials creates efficacy bar risk.

#10. TARA – Protara Therapeutics Inc.

📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Price: $7.00 | Cap: $361.42M | Cash: $190.79M | Runway: 36m+ | Float: 51.6M | RSI: 69.0 | Momentum: +33.3% | Vol: 0.9x

🎯 THE CATALYST
Event: TARA-002 (ADVANCED-2) – Phase 2 Interim at ASCO GU
Date: 2026-02-27
⭐ BSI SCORE: 8.13/10

Protara commands a fortress cash position with TARA-002, an inactivated Streptococcus pyogenes immunopotentiator for high-grade non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. BCG-naïve interim data showed 72% complete response at any time, 69% at 6 months, 50% at 12 months—addressing the BCG shortage crisis.

The Setup: Cash at $191M (53% of cap) provides 46+ month runway through enrollment completion H2 2026 and beyond. RSI 69 and +33% momentum confirm institutional interest building into ASCO GU. BCG-unresponsive cohort data could validate broad NMIBC label potential.

Science & Edge: TARA-002 activates TLR2/NOD2 pathways, releasing cytokines (TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-6, IL-12, GM-CSF) for direct tumor kill and systemic antitumor response. Derived from the same master cell bank as approved OK-432/Picibanil in Japan/Taiwan/Korea, manufacturing risk is de-risked. No grade 3+ treatment-related adverse events reported.

Risk/Reward:
🐂 Bull: BCG-unresponsive data validates broad NMIBC registration path. ~65,000 annual US cases with BCG shortage create urgent unmet need.
🐻 Bear: Binary Phase 2 risk if BCG-unresponsive underperforms BCG-naïve. Competition from approved BCG and emerging intravesical therapies.

WATCHLIST (#11-30)

#11. PVLA – Palvella Therapeutics Inc. [Rare Disease / Specialty]

📊 Price: $81.90 | Cap: $969.41M | Cash: $52.89M | RSI: 34.8 | Momentum: -18.0% 🎯 QTORIN (SELVA) – Phase 3 in Microcystic Lymphatic Malformations (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 8.13/10

The Intel: Pioneering topical rapamycin (QTORIN 3.9% anhydrous gel) for microcystic lymphatic malformations—an orphan condition with zero approved treatments. Phase 3 SELVA trial enrollment complete; NDA submission planned H2 2026. Primary risk: limited cash ($53M) against $969M cap could require financing ahead of commercialization.

#12. PEPG – PepGen Inc. [Neurology / CNS]

📊 Price: $5.22 | Cap: $358.87M | Cash: $137.56M | RSI: 33.0 | Momentum: -18.7% 🎯 PGN-EDODM2 (FREEDOM-DM1) – Phase 1/2 in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (2026 Q1) 🛡️ FTD, ODD ⭐ BSI: 8.09/10

The Intel: Harnesses enhanced delivery oligonucleotide technology for DM1, showing 53.7% mean splicing correction at 15 mg/kg in Phase 1. FREEDOM2 5 mg/kg cohort data due Q1 2026 with healthy runway funding multi-year development. Primary risk: early-stage data requires replication in larger cohorts.

(ACQUIRED)

#13. VTYX – Ventyx Biosciences Inc. [Immunology / Inflammation]

📊 Price: $13.95 | Cap: $995.45M | Cash: $168.90M | RSI: 63.4 | Momentum: +59.4% 🎯 VTX2735 – Phase 2 in CAPS (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 8.08/10

The Intel: Targets NLRP3 inflammasome with peripheral selectivity, achieving 85% mean reduction in Key Symptom Score during Phase 2 treatment in cryopyrin-associated periodic syndrome. Strong runway and +59% momentum signal institutional positioning. Primary risk: crowded inflammasome space with multiple competitors advancing.

#14. MLYS – Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. [Cardiovascular]

📊 Price: $32.09 | Cap: $2.54B | Cash: $554.49M | RSI: 45.5 | Momentum: -9.6% 🎯 Lorundrostat (EXPLORE-OSA) – Phase 2 in Obstructive Sleep Apnea + Hypertension (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 8.08/10

The Intel: Advances lorundrostat as selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor for OSA with hypertension—a novel cardiometabolic intersection. Enrollment completed September 2025; topline due Q1 2026. Cash exceeds $554M providing 57+ month runway. Primary risk: unvalidated OSA/hypertension combination endpoint.

#15. KOD – Kodiak Sciences Inc. [Ophthalmology]

📊 Price: $25.43 | Cap: $1.52B | Cash: $211.47M | RSI: 45.1 | Momentum: -9.0% 🎯 Tarcocimab tedromer (GLOW2) – Phase 3 in Non-Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 8.04/10

The Intel: Offers extended 6-month dosing intervals via tarcocimab tedromer for diabetic retinopathy—addressing patient compliance burden with frequent anti-VEGF injections. GLOW Phase 3 met primary endpoints (≥2-step improvement superiority). Primary risk: competitive anti-VEGF space with established Eylea and Vabysmo.

#16. VNDA – Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. [Neurology / CNS]

📊 Price: $7.78 | Cap: $459.77M | Cash: $250.88M | RSI: 59.7 | Momentum: +10.7% 🎯 Bysanti (milsaperidone) – PDUFA in Acute Bipolar I Disorder (2026-02-21) ⭐ BSI: 7.98/10

The Intel: Awaits FDA decision on milsaperidone for acute bipolar I mania, with PDUFA date February 21, 2026—just 21 days away. NDA filed with no potential review issues identified. Cash provides healthy runway through commercial launch. Primary risk: crowded antipsychotic market requires differentiation on tolerability profile.

#17. MDCX – Medicus Pharma Ltd. [Dermatology]

📊 Price: $1.25 | Cap: $26.21M | Cash: $4.60M | RSI: 20.8 | Momentum: -17.2% 🎯 Doxorubicin Microneedle Array (SKNJCT-003) – Phase 2 in Basal Cell Carcinoma (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.95/10

The Intel: Deploys doxorubicin via microneedle array for non-invasive BCC treatment—90 patients enrolled in randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2 with positive interim clearance data. RSI 20.8 signals extreme oversold territory. Primary risk: $4.6M cash creates existential pressure; financing is imminent.

#18. FGEN – Kyntra Bio Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $9.71 | Cap: $39.28M | Cash: $115.92M | RSI: 64.6 | Momentum: +4.5% 🎯 FG-3246 + Enzalutamide – Phase 2 in mCRPC (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.94/10

The Intel: Trades at negative enterprise value ($39M cap vs $116M cash, 188-month runway) while advancing FG-3246 combination for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Note: Scanner flagged data inconsistency regarding company name/program ownership. Primary risk: verification needed on development status and corporate structure.

#19. ALZN – Alzamend Neuro Inc. [Neurology / CNS]

📊 Price: $2.02 | Cap: $7.68M | Cash: $3.26M | RSI: 32.6 | Momentum: +5.2% 🎯 AL001 – Phase 2 "Lithium in Brain" Study (2026-03-31) ⭐ BSI: 7.91/10

The Intel: Tackles lithium brain pharmacokinetics with AL001, a next-generation formulation comparing brain uptake versus marketed lithium salts at Massachusetts General Hospital. Dosing commenced May 2025; topline due Q1 2026. Primary risk: $3.26M cash creates 8-month runway constraint; micro-cap volatility elevated.

(ACQUIRED)

#20. LSTA – Lisata Therapeutics Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $4.64 | Cap: $40.93M | Cash: $14.47M | RSI: 93.3 | Momentum: +141.7% 🎯 LSTA1/Certepetide (ASCEND) – Phase 2b Final Data in 1L Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.90/10

The Intel: Commands the momentum scoreboard at +141.7% on certepetide Phase 2b data showing 45.2% ORR vs 19% placebo in pancreatic cancer. Final data due Q1 2026. RSI 93.3 signals extreme overbought territory. Primary risk: post-catalyst profit-taking likely; cash at $14.5M requires near-term financing.

#21. NBP – NovaBridge Biosciences [Oncology]

📊 Price: $3.68 | Cap: $423.18M | Cash: $173.40M | RSI: 45.8 | Momentum: -7.1% 🎯 Givastomig (CLDN18.2 x 4-1BB) – Phase 1b/Phase 2 Start in HER2-Negative Gastric Cancer (2026 Q1) 🛡️ ODD ⭐ BSI: 7.85/10

The Intel: Delivers striking 77% ORR at 8 mg/kg and 73% at 12 mg/kg in Phase 1b HER2-negative metastatic gastric cancer with nivolumab/mFOLFOX6. Median PFS reached 16.9 months. Phase 2 enrollment starts Q1 2026. Primary risk: imputed catalyst date creates timing uncertainty.

#22. SKYE – Skye Bioscience Inc. [Metabolic]

📊 Price: $0.96 | Cap: $30.78M | Cash: $17.20M | RSI: 42.4 | Momentum: +32.0% 🎯 Nimacimab (CBeyond) – Phase 2 Extension 26-Week Data in Obesity (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.84/10

The Intel: Addresses obesity via peripheral CB1 receptor inhibition without CNS exposure—avoiding psychiatric side effects that killed rimonabant. Note: Phase 2a missed primary endpoint (October 2025). New preclinical data shows 39-46% weight loss when combined with tirzepatide. Primary risk: primary endpoint miss requires extension data to validate mechanism.

#23. ADAG – Adagene Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $2.91 | Cap: $137.15M | Cash: $85.19M | RSI: 79.7 | Momentum: +60.2% 🎯 Muzastotug (ADG126) + KEYTRUDA – Phase 1b/2 in Solid Tumors (2026 Q1) 🛡️ FTD ⭐ BSI: 7.83/10

The Intel: Develops masked anti-CTLA-4 SAFEbody (muzastotug) combined with pembrolizumab, achieving FDA Type B alignment on Phase 2 endpoints. Phase 2 dosing commenced October 2025. RSI 79.7 shows overbought conditions. Primary risk: crowded checkpoint combination space; differentiation requires standout efficacy data.

#24. IRD – Opus Genetics Inc. [Ophthalmology]

📊 Price: $2.50 | Cap: $172.41M | Cash: $45.47M | RSI: 66.9 | Momentum: +28.2% 🎯 OPGx-BEST1 – Phase 1/2 Initial Data in BEST1-Related IRD (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.81/10

The Intel: Pursues AAV-based gene therapy delivering functional BEST1 gene to RPE cells for Best vitelliform macular dystrophy. IND cleared August 2025; first patient dosed November 2025; positive IDMC recommendation December 2025. Primary risk: ultra-rare indication limits commercial scale despite technical validation.

#25. REPL – Replimune Group Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $7.39 | Cap: $579.70M | Cash: $213.56M | RSI: 35.2 | Momentum: -24.7% 🎯 RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + OPDIVO – PDUFA Resubmission Decision (2026-04-10) 🛡️ BTD ⭐ BSI: 7.79/10

The Intel: Champions oncolytic herpes simplex virus (RP1) combined with nivolumab for non-melanoma skin cancer. PDUFA resubmission decision April 10, 2026. Breakthrough Therapy Designation validates mechanism. Primary risk: 8-month runway creates cash pressure; previous FDA review cycle required resubmission.

#26. GLUE – Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $21.36 | Cap: $1.39B | Cash: $827.39M | RSI: 25.3 | Momentum: +33.8% 🎯 MRT-2359 – Phase 2 Update at ASCO GU (2026-02-28) 🛡️ FTD, ODD ⭐ BSI: 7.78/10

The Intel: Leads with GSPT1 molecular glue degrader showing 100% PSA response rate and 100% disease control in early MYC-driven solid tumor data (December 2025). Strong runway ($827M) and RSI 25.3 oversold signal contrast with +33.8% momentum. Primary risk: early dataset requires expansion for durability confirmation.

#27. ZBIO – Zenas BioPharma Inc. [Neurology / CNS]

📊 Price: $20.88 | Cap: $1.12B | Cash: $235.14M | RSI: 63.7 | Momentum: -42.9% 🎯 Obexelimab (MoonStone) – Phase 2 24-Week Data in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.76/10

The Intel: Pioneers bifunctional antibody that achieved 95% reduction in new gadolinium-enhancing lesions in Phase 2 MoonStone trial for RMS. Primary endpoint met October 2025; 24-week data due Q1 2026. Primary risk: -42.9% momentum reflects recent selling pressure despite positive headline results.

#28. CTMX – CytomX Therapeutics Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $5.74 | Cap: $972.56M | Cash: $122.55M | RSI: 71.5 | Momentum: +38.0% 🎯 Varsetatug masetecan (CX-2051) – Phase 1 Data Update in EpCAM+ Solid Tumors (2026 Q1) 📅 Additional catalysts: 1 more within 90 days ⭐ BSI: 7.75/10

The Intel: Advances PROBODY-drug conjugate showing 28% ORR overall and 43% at 10 mg/kg dose in Phase 1 solid tumor expansion. Bevacizumab combo trial starting Q1 2026 plus colorectal cancer expansion data create dual-catalyst window. Primary risk: ADC space crowded with multiple EpCAM-targeting programs.

#29. ACIU – AC Immune SA [Neurology / CNS]

📊 Price: $3.40 | Cap: $341.40M | Cash: $36.28M | RSI: 48.7 | Momentum: +7.9% 🎯 ACI-15916 PET – Phase 1 in α-Synucleinopathies/Parkinson's (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.73/10

The Intel: Develops precision PET imaging tracer for alpha-synuclein pathology in Parkinson's disease—a diagnostic gap limiting drug development and clinical management. Phase 1 initial data expected Q1 2026. Primary risk: diagnostic imaging commercialization requires different pathway than therapeutics.

#30. OKUR – OnKure Therapeutics Inc. [Oncology]

📊 Price: $2.73 | Cap: $36.99M | Cash: $52.66M | RSI: 45.6 | Momentum: -4.2% 🎯 OKI-219 (PIKture-01) – Phase 1 in Breast Cancer & Solid Tumors (2026 Q1) ⭐ BSI: 7.69/10

The Intel: Targets PI3Kα H1047R mutation—the most common PIK3CA alteration in breast cancer—with mutant-selective inhibitor OKI-219. Negative enterprise value ($37M cap vs $53M cash) provides floor. Primary risk: Phase 1 data lacks efficacy endpoints; safety/PK focus limits near-term rerating potential.

The Strategist's Take

This week's scan reveals a biotech sector in tension. Deep value setups dominate our featured cohort—ACET, ACRV, OKUR, and FGEN all trade below cash value, a rarity outside sector-wide capitulation. Yet several names face existential timelines: MBRX, PCSA, and MDCX must deliver data before cash exhaustion, creating the kind of all-or-nothing setups that define small-cap biotech.

Three themes emerge from the data. First, autoimmune is stealing the spotlight from oncology. Adicet's allogeneic CAR-T pivot to lupus (ACET, BSI 7.16), Zenas's MS bifunctional (ZBIO, BSI 6.76), and Palisade's fibrostenotic Crohn's focus (PALI, BSI 7.31) all address chronic conditions with massive patient populations. The autologous CAR-T successes in lupus from Kyverna and others have validated immune reset as more than concept—now we watch whether off-the-shelf approaches can match durability.

Second, the TYK2/JAK pathway continues maturing. Alumis's ONWARD Phase 3 success (ALMS, BSI 7.30) positions envudeucitinib for NDA submission, but the frontrunner trade is crowded. RSI 76.6 signals overbought conditions that typically precede pullbacks, even in fundamentally strong stories. Momentum investors should size accordingly.

Third, platform companies with multiple 2026 catalysts offer optionality without single-catalyst dependency. Wave Life Sciences (WVE, BSI 7.21) stacks AAT, obesity, and Huntington's readouts across Q1-Q2. Cybin (CYBN, BSI 7.13) advances both psilocin (MDD) and DMT (GAD) programs. This diversification buffers against binary outcomes while maintaining upside from any individual success.

Caution flags center on runway. Five watchlist names carry Cash Crunch warnings: MBRX, PCSA, MDCX, SKYE, and REPL. In each case, data must arrive before capital—a sequencing challenge that kills more biotechs than failed trials. Position sizing should reflect this reality.

About This Scanner

This weekly report identifies biotech catalyst opportunities using quantitative screening combined with fundamental analysis.

What the Score Means: The BSI Score (0-10) reflects overall opportunity quality based on technical setup and fundamental characteristics. Higher scores indicate more favorable setups; lower scores indicate elevated uncertainty. This is NOT a prediction of catalyst outcomes or stock direction.

Data Sources: Financial data from market feeds and regulatory filings. Catalyst dates are estimates based on company guidance and subject to change.

Important: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, or medical advice. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, or professional advice.

Key Risks:

• Clinical trials: Most drug candidates fail in development
• Regulatory: FDA decisions remain unpredictable
• Financing: Companies may dilute at any time
• Volatility: Small-cap biotech stocks experience extreme price swings

Past performance does not guarantee future results.